Pierre Lassonde is one of the living legends of the mining and resource world with over 35 years of experience
He got into the gold market in 1974. The crash that happened when he got in the business seared soome lessons into his memory
$35 ounce jump to $180 ounce, and then fell 50% when ppl were expecting a new floor of $160
Good Gold miners dont have ANY bank debt..stay away if they do because get crushed on the downswing. They give way assets just to survive
Goldcorp GG started as Wheaton River, a small co. with cash when the market tanked and grew into GG
It's better to do a major capitalization all at once up front rather than having to keep coming back to raise money. As the spot price rises many juniors start financing to get in the game and that is a mistake in the end
Raising money throuh share distribution dilutes the price, and that doesnt work in mining either
Central banks are now net buyers of gold for first time since 1981
Recent J. Paulson comments reinforce the fact that gold is not a bubble...no one wants to listen to him? The public is voting with their money by effectively saying "show us that you can profit from this first, then we'll ivest"
Diamoond markets have three major producers, an oligarchy essentially
Unlike the metals biz, miners fabricators retailers and wholesalers...the miner makes the most - fab 1-0%, wholesaler 10-30%, retailer 30%...miner holds rest because the margin they sell a diamond at is 99%
The monthly production of a large miner in Canada fits in a shot glass...diamonds are a work of art by mother nature and very rare
Bathtub analogy: bathtub is full of GDP..there are many drains - one for Greece, one for CDOs, one for CRE, etc...the taps in the tub are the feds and the Federal Reserve filling the tub with liquidity...once the market corrects and the drains get "plugged", the tub will overflow and we'll have inflation...Fed policies are fighting the deflation they see by erring on the side of inflating...they know deflative destruction is do dangerous that they are leaning toward the other side
Discoveries have not been happening in the past ten years. The finds are 1-3M ounces...growth is in the junior sector...Barrick produces 8M oz a year...its making it difficult to keep up with demand
If gold goes back to $700, there would be destruction in the industry
Gold has a long way to go to be a mainstream investment
May - July is the buying season for gold
Bottom is around $950, but no collapse
This mania will dwarf the 70s and 80s mania because the market is much larger....back then it was the US and Europe...now we have China and India in the silver market
The Chinese were not allowed to own gold until very recently
They have a huge affinity for gambling and they want to own gold
Secular bull could go on for 10-20 years
Invest in mining comapnies with good people... a good asset with lousy manager is nowhere...a so-so asset with a great mgr will always win out
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Ted Butler - Jan 23, 2010
Gold and silver are moving down short term on the pullback...the COMEX activity is the meat of what happens in the gold and silver markets right now...it had nothing to do with fundamentals this week
You cant change supply and demand dramatically in 3 days...no change in demand, no sell off... this is JPMorgan closing short positions
300M oz in SLV..2nd highest sales month for Eagles in last few years...no signs of large supply increase. Fundamentals are fine
COMEX and Morgan controlling this downtrend
CFTC true nature will be revealed after hearings in Feb. Either they will regulate position limits on precious metals to clear absurd number of short positions by one bank - Morgan - or they will do nothing and reveal their hand and useless and meaningless
You cant change supply and demand dramatically in 3 days...no change in demand, no sell off... this is JPMorgan closing short positions
300M oz in SLV..2nd highest sales month for Eagles in last few years...no signs of large supply increase. Fundamentals are fine
COMEX and Morgan controlling this downtrend
CFTC true nature will be revealed after hearings in Feb. Either they will regulate position limits on precious metals to clear absurd number of short positions by one bank - Morgan - or they will do nothing and reveal their hand and useless and meaningless
Friday, January 22, 2010
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