Pierre Lassonde is one of the living legends of the mining and resource world with over 35 years of experience
He got into the gold market in 1974. The crash that happened when he got in the business seared soome lessons into his memory
$35 ounce jump to $180 ounce, and then fell 50% when ppl were expecting a new floor of $160
Good Gold miners dont have ANY bank debt..stay away if they do because get crushed on the downswing. They give way assets just to survive
Goldcorp GG started as Wheaton River, a small co. with cash when the market tanked and grew into GG
It's better to do a major capitalization all at once up front rather than having to keep coming back to raise money. As the spot price rises many juniors start financing to get in the game and that is a mistake in the end
Raising money throuh share distribution dilutes the price, and that doesnt work in mining either
Central banks are now net buyers of gold for first time since 1981
Recent J. Paulson comments reinforce the fact that gold is not a bubble...no one wants to listen to him? The public is voting with their money by effectively saying "show us that you can profit from this first, then we'll ivest"
Diamoond markets have three major producers, an oligarchy essentially
Unlike the metals biz, miners fabricators retailers and wholesalers...the miner makes the most - fab 1-0%, wholesaler 10-30%, retailer 30%...miner holds rest because the margin they sell a diamond at is 99%
The monthly production of a large miner in Canada fits in a shot glass...diamonds are a work of art by mother nature and very rare
Bathtub analogy: bathtub is full of GDP..there are many drains - one for Greece, one for CDOs, one for CRE, etc...the taps in the tub are the feds and the Federal Reserve filling the tub with liquidity...once the market corrects and the drains get "plugged", the tub will overflow and we'll have inflation...Fed policies are fighting the deflation they see by erring on the side of inflating...they know deflative destruction is do dangerous that they are leaning toward the other side
Discoveries have not been happening in the past ten years. The finds are 1-3M ounces...growth is in the junior sector...Barrick produces 8M oz a year...its making it difficult to keep up with demand
If gold goes back to $700, there would be destruction in the industry
Gold has a long way to go to be a mainstream investment
May - July is the buying season for gold
Bottom is around $950, but no collapse
This mania will dwarf the 70s and 80s mania because the market is much larger....back then it was the US and Europe...now we have China and India in the silver market
The Chinese were not allowed to own gold until very recently
They have a huge affinity for gambling and they want to own gold
Secular bull could go on for 10-20 years
Invest in mining comapnies with good people... a good asset with lousy manager is nowhere...a so-so asset with a great mgr will always win out
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Ted Butler - Jan 23, 2010
Gold and silver are moving down short term on the pullback...the COMEX activity is the meat of what happens in the gold and silver markets right now...it had nothing to do with fundamentals this week
You cant change supply and demand dramatically in 3 days...no change in demand, no sell off... this is JPMorgan closing short positions
300M oz in SLV..2nd highest sales month for Eagles in last few years...no signs of large supply increase. Fundamentals are fine
COMEX and Morgan controlling this downtrend
CFTC true nature will be revealed after hearings in Feb. Either they will regulate position limits on precious metals to clear absurd number of short positions by one bank - Morgan - or they will do nothing and reveal their hand and useless and meaningless
You cant change supply and demand dramatically in 3 days...no change in demand, no sell off... this is JPMorgan closing short positions
300M oz in SLV..2nd highest sales month for Eagles in last few years...no signs of large supply increase. Fundamentals are fine
COMEX and Morgan controlling this downtrend
CFTC true nature will be revealed after hearings in Feb. Either they will regulate position limits on precious metals to clear absurd number of short positions by one bank - Morgan - or they will do nothing and reveal their hand and useless and meaningless
Friday, January 22, 2010
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Junior Miner
With the vallue of fiat currencies likely to encounter another rough bounce down, the natural rush worldwide for natural resources should prove to be the long term trend. The world is connecting more rapidly than ever. The internet and overnight shipping are makng incredible, unprecedented, and what would used to be implausible acuallly happen...
Canada is replete with small undervalued companies which deal in the exploration, financing, and extraction of things like precious and base meatls as well as oil and uranium. Western Canada especially is the place most likely on earth to have the things people from other parts of the world are looking for, and looking for goood reason. It helps that China has a direct shipping route to BC. Empty shipping containers litter the ports now, but the Chinese are loading up on har materials with the US Treasuries they have been purchasing.
Everyone used to complain that the Chinese were artifically deflating their currency, but he clamor has long since passed, and now the penultimaete queston of the moent is, is China's econom going to have a sever correction, or will it run hard for another 5-10 years. No one can say for certain. It's impossible to know. But China wants what BC has, you can be sure of that. And the best part of that is that a junior miner cannot lie to you anywhere near the way a financial ssector equity analyst can to pump a stock. Hard assets are either there or they arent. Management teams can either spend and hire wisely and help create geologic theories that will prove true, or they can fritter away their time and resources and funding and go belly up rapidly. This is a dangerous sector, by the way, but lets disuss that later\
So I want to write like I'm talking to you...because I want you to know what I know and I want you to understand what I think and share it with ou so we can share the experience and part of the reason I love talking to you is that you love to laugh, and you love to laugh at me.
Canada is replete with small undervalued companies which deal in the exploration, financing, and extraction of things like precious and base meatls as well as oil and uranium. Western Canada especially is the place most likely on earth to have the things people from other parts of the world are looking for, and looking for goood reason. It helps that China has a direct shipping route to BC. Empty shipping containers litter the ports now, but the Chinese are loading up on har materials with the US Treasuries they have been purchasing.
Everyone used to complain that the Chinese were artifically deflating their currency, but he clamor has long since passed, and now the penultimaete queston of the moent is, is China's econom going to have a sever correction, or will it run hard for another 5-10 years. No one can say for certain. It's impossible to know. But China wants what BC has, you can be sure of that. And the best part of that is that a junior miner cannot lie to you anywhere near the way a financial ssector equity analyst can to pump a stock. Hard assets are either there or they arent. Management teams can either spend and hire wisely and help create geologic theories that will prove true, or they can fritter away their time and resources and funding and go belly up rapidly. This is a dangerous sector, by the way, but lets disuss that later\
So I want to write like I'm talking to you...because I want you to know what I know and I want you to understand what I think and share it with ou so we can share the experience and part of the reason I love talking to you is that you love to laugh, and you love to laugh at me.
Whipsawed
I don't know about you, but I'm starting to worry about our country for real...We love to make lists. As a large piece of land and law - a continent, really - the United States people will offer up endless laundry lists of solutions to our problems. Soultions? Problems? Sound too vague? OK then, I'll go straight to it:
1. {Seven Way Tie)
Medicare / Medicaid
Fractional Reserve Banking in The Age of IT
Empirial Overexpansion
Peak Oil
Unhealthy Fiat Currencies Globally
Education
Health
Each of these political/social topics will draw out every dreamy jackass, every intellectual nightowl, every two bit economist and philosopher there is from Seattle to Miami. There will never be a concensus, and there will never again be a democracy. AMerica as we knew it is gone. I have to give credit to Bill Bonner the economical morale philosopkh.
AMeria is an idea, not a collection of 3100 counties. It's the Bill of Rights upheld, not a map of 50 states. It's a large land mass full of people full of latent envy and resentment. Like Howard Zinn keeps reminding us, democracies are maintained from the bottom up, not the top down. People are people - they don't distribute power equally, they coddle it. A peopples government is almost a paradox. That assumes man is capable of relinquishing power, which he is not. In a vast bureau cratic government body it only takes one rogue department o elemnt o make the whole thing look bad and invite social examination, which many might call "conspiracy theory" and of course would be wrong. It's conspiracy FACT. It is a FACT people conspire, another inseparable ttribute of man's nature. The landscape is littered with it. Are yor health care taxes going to pharmaceutical companies to create solutions to your bodys functions in pill form? Is that the best you can do?
We let go of that idea and he rope was yanked violently from our hands by corporations operating as a single human over international borderes with the largest pools of money on the planted printing by the Central Bank of the United States and working in collusions with the global parlimenary and military leaders of he world
God bless the day Americans completely forget about the time they separated this country into red and blue. We have been controlled all along. We have never had democracy in this country, because democracy is only truly accomplished by the Machiavellian societies of the anglos abandoning their very natures, of which they surely never will. It was once said that wherever the Brisitsh goes, the invisible hand of God clears a path for them...whether in India, North America, Kenya or elsewhere, the forces at work in these scenarios are eerily similar in nature to what is happening from Acadia National Park to Imperial Beach: our Constituion is being dismantled and global financial warfare has resulted in the takeover of the US in a financial coup by an offshore banking cartel the likes of which 99% of Americans dont know, can't see, and therefore never even take as a mere baby step on a 10,000 mile journey to begin to figure out what exists out there
Like KRS-One said...if they controlled it before, who do you think is controlling it now? Whenever you have a shock in a political eb=nvironment - say a health issue with a dignitary, or an assassination - you hear reporters briefly mention a struggle in a power vacuum. Thats not Oreck shes talking about. Absences of mature runs in power have a way of sewing a type of specific disorder and social black hole thats rushed to get filled as quickly as its created. They dont last long...
Power is passed on, cradled, muzzled, protected, stolen, manipulated, abused, cherished and several other verbs too may to mention...we allowed it to happen in this country and now we bein the frenetic, neurotic provebial walking the plank towrd the day when we have our first bank holiday
For anyone asking what a bank holiday is, a few words-
It's a normal weekday, except that the Federal Govt has seized control of commercial banks and closed them to the public. Seeing tha your money isnt in there anyway its not a big deal that you cant get inside. There is always electric banking right? SUrely you'll be able to be dispensed money from a box anytime you want, right?
It's inters=ting to note here that approximately 3% of the GDP exists in physical currency...fractional reservebanking is mostly done electronically now, and the US has flooded trillions of "electronic" dollars into the world. What does that mean for our fate as "consumers"?
The more the oil runs out, the more insidious the lying to us by the oil companies and world governments would be, the nation states fracturing tribes. And the more lying there is, the more obvious it will be that the US governmet is floating the idea of invading an oil production compna or staging a false flag operation to frighten the people of the country into submission and exploitation. Manufacturing Consent,Goebels, Mussolini - these all prtray world views as accepted by their purveyors, and those types of ideas will always live. They are almost willed into existence more so than even the force of a social power vacuum and black hole
The time has come. The world oil markets are now going to make their plays for the first time in history as not in favor of the US. This is new in gloabl paradigm. Bush is gone, the dollar is weak, and America is on its heels, against the ropes, and we're not as young as we used to be. WE're 55 years on from Germany and the War. That's plenty of time to forget, and all the more reason we'd find ourselves in the spot we're in and yet still thinking ourselves post history, like we live in a time that has somehow trumped the past. It's the highest quantifiable measure of ego you could imagine. There is a time when ego crosses over into disregard, into a cold hard unfeeling stare...
1. {Seven Way Tie)
Medicare / Medicaid
Fractional Reserve Banking in The Age of IT
Empirial Overexpansion
Peak Oil
Unhealthy Fiat Currencies Globally
Education
Health
Each of these political/social topics will draw out every dreamy jackass, every intellectual nightowl, every two bit economist and philosopher there is from Seattle to Miami. There will never be a concensus, and there will never again be a democracy. AMerica as we knew it is gone. I have to give credit to Bill Bonner the economical morale philosopkh.
AMeria is an idea, not a collection of 3100 counties. It's the Bill of Rights upheld, not a map of 50 states. It's a large land mass full of people full of latent envy and resentment. Like Howard Zinn keeps reminding us, democracies are maintained from the bottom up, not the top down. People are people - they don't distribute power equally, they coddle it. A peopples government is almost a paradox. That assumes man is capable of relinquishing power, which he is not. In a vast bureau cratic government body it only takes one rogue department o elemnt o make the whole thing look bad and invite social examination, which many might call "conspiracy theory" and of course would be wrong. It's conspiracy FACT. It is a FACT people conspire, another inseparable ttribute of man's nature. The landscape is littered with it. Are yor health care taxes going to pharmaceutical companies to create solutions to your bodys functions in pill form? Is that the best you can do?
We let go of that idea and he rope was yanked violently from our hands by corporations operating as a single human over international borderes with the largest pools of money on the planted printing by the Central Bank of the United States and working in collusions with the global parlimenary and military leaders of he world
God bless the day Americans completely forget about the time they separated this country into red and blue. We have been controlled all along. We have never had democracy in this country, because democracy is only truly accomplished by the Machiavellian societies of the anglos abandoning their very natures, of which they surely never will. It was once said that wherever the Brisitsh goes, the invisible hand of God clears a path for them...whether in India, North America, Kenya or elsewhere, the forces at work in these scenarios are eerily similar in nature to what is happening from Acadia National Park to Imperial Beach: our Constituion is being dismantled and global financial warfare has resulted in the takeover of the US in a financial coup by an offshore banking cartel the likes of which 99% of Americans dont know, can't see, and therefore never even take as a mere baby step on a 10,000 mile journey to begin to figure out what exists out there
Like KRS-One said...if they controlled it before, who do you think is controlling it now? Whenever you have a shock in a political eb=nvironment - say a health issue with a dignitary, or an assassination - you hear reporters briefly mention a struggle in a power vacuum. Thats not Oreck shes talking about. Absences of mature runs in power have a way of sewing a type of specific disorder and social black hole thats rushed to get filled as quickly as its created. They dont last long...
Power is passed on, cradled, muzzled, protected, stolen, manipulated, abused, cherished and several other verbs too may to mention...we allowed it to happen in this country and now we bein the frenetic, neurotic provebial walking the plank towrd the day when we have our first bank holiday
For anyone asking what a bank holiday is, a few words-
It's a normal weekday, except that the Federal Govt has seized control of commercial banks and closed them to the public. Seeing tha your money isnt in there anyway its not a big deal that you cant get inside. There is always electric banking right? SUrely you'll be able to be dispensed money from a box anytime you want, right?
It's inters=ting to note here that approximately 3% of the GDP exists in physical currency...fractional reservebanking is mostly done electronically now, and the US has flooded trillions of "electronic" dollars into the world. What does that mean for our fate as "consumers"?
The more the oil runs out, the more insidious the lying to us by the oil companies and world governments would be, the nation states fracturing tribes. And the more lying there is, the more obvious it will be that the US governmet is floating the idea of invading an oil production compna or staging a false flag operation to frighten the people of the country into submission and exploitation. Manufacturing Consent,Goebels, Mussolini - these all prtray world views as accepted by their purveyors, and those types of ideas will always live. They are almost willed into existence more so than even the force of a social power vacuum and black hole
The time has come. The world oil markets are now going to make their plays for the first time in history as not in favor of the US. This is new in gloabl paradigm. Bush is gone, the dollar is weak, and America is on its heels, against the ropes, and we're not as young as we used to be. WE're 55 years on from Germany and the War. That's plenty of time to forget, and all the more reason we'd find ourselves in the spot we're in and yet still thinking ourselves post history, like we live in a time that has somehow trumped the past. It's the highest quantifiable measure of ego you could imagine. There is a time when ego crosses over into disregard, into a cold hard unfeeling stare...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)